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Weekend record breaking cold potential a result of country-sized weather pattern

Low temperatures only fall below -10 degrees in Colorado Springs once every 3 years on average
Posted 1:59 AM, Jan 16, 2025
and last updated 12:34 AM, Jan 17, 2025

It's going to get very cold this weekend. The reason is interesting…giant weather patterns the size of our entire country combining together in a unique way.

The two most important patterns impacting us now are the Arctic Oscillation…or A-O, and the Pacific North-American Oscillation often shortened to the PNA. The technical name for these patterns is called a teleconnection…if you want to impress the weather enthusiast friends in your life.

The Arctic Oscillation is producing high pressure over the north pole

The A-O shifts high and low pressure between the North Pole and Canada. When high pressure moves over the Arctic, cold air gets pushed south into the U.S. It's sending us the cold air.

The Pacific North American Oscillation is sending low pressure to the western states

The P-N-A shifts high and low pressure between the western U.S. and the Pacific Ocean south of Alaska. When high pressure is centered near Alaska... low pressure often forms over us. And low pressure often brings us storms.

It is the combination of - both - patterns...the AO and the PNA...that lead to the dramatic cold outbreak, and snow, this weekend in Colorado

The AO has been sending us cold air for a couple of weeks. It'll also send us this weekend's cold blast. The PNA is different though. It didn't matter for the last few weeks, but now it's also joining the party. It's going to bring low pressure to Colorado this weekend. It's the combination of the cold air …and low pressure…that are leading to the near record cold and storm potential here. That is what is making this weekend's cold event so potent.

Low temperatures only fall below -10 degrees in Colorado Springs once every 3 years on average
Low temperatures only fall below -10 degrees in Colorado Springs once every 3 years on average

This is a setup we don't see every year. Here's a look at the coldest low temperature in Colorado Springs in the last 30 years. Only in 11 years was the coldest low below negative 10... as forecast this weekend. So on average we only get this cold every three years. Only seven years have a coldest low of -14 or lower...meaning on average that occurs a little more than once every 5 years. Notably, when researching the data for this story, there is a clear upward trend in lowest low temperature between the beginning of the record in 1894 and today. For that reason - as cold as this weekend will be...it's not actually that historic. In the past, we saw cold like this more often. It's become a bit less common over time. One difference though is that in the past, it wouldn't necessarily require a polar air plunge for us to get a long duration deep freeze event.

So that's the science: massive weather patterns the size of our entire country - and that change on the scale of weeks to months - happen to be aligning perfectly to drive the cold and snow this weekend.

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