Last year, southern Colorado had 49 days with Red Flag Warnings. Thirty-five of them were between March and May. So - this week's fire danger is, unfortunately, right on schedule.
In the last 17 years, southern Colorado has averaged 46 Red Flag Warning days per year. But how many Fire Weather Warning event days we see is actually quite variable - depending on how dry the winter is and how warm spring is. One of the elements that can impact our temperatures, moisture, and wind events is the El Niño - Southern Oscillation - or ENSO.
In 2011 and 2022, both years which recorded strong La Niñas in winter, we had dramatically increased Red Flag events. 2011 had 80 red flag warning days and 2022 had 79. Conversely, strong El Niños are associated with lower Red Flag Warning day counts. Both 2015 and 2016 featured strong El Ninos during winter. In 2015 only 17 Red Flag Warning days were recorded - 13 of those between March and May. And, in 2016, 33 Red Flag Warning days were recorded with 14 between March and May.
March averages about 7.5 Red Flag Warning days per year. But - at the high end, 2018 (another La Niña winter) saw 13 days in March.
The reason fire danger peaks in Spring is because our grasses and shrubs dry out during winter. These dry fuels only need a spark and some wind to create major problems for us.
And spring brings a lot of wind to southern Colorado. Here's what happens: This time of year, cold air from Canada pushes south… while warm air tries to surge north. This tug of war strengthens our jet stream, and we end up with a lot of wind.
We're currently coming out of a La Niña winter. As you can see, this is associated with a higher number of fire weather days in our region during spring. So as you get outside to enjoy the warm weather... know the forecast so you know when to avoid campfires and other outdoor burning.
____
Have a question or story idea you would like the First Alert 5 Weather team to consider? Email: weather@koaa.com
Watch KOAA News5 on your time, anytime with our free streaming app available for your Roku, FireTV, AppleTV and Android TV. Just search KOAA News5, download and start watching.
