Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have just released their spring outlook, which is giving us a good idea of what we can expect weather-wise not only in the United States, but also here in Colorado.
And the outlook is pointing to a wet early spring, followed by warmer and drier conditions, which forecasters say is typical when we transition from El Niño – a southward shift of the Pacific jet stream that typically brings a wetter weather pattern to our region – and into La Niña, the northward movement of the jet stream that typically spells drier conditions in Colorado.
The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, meaning it predicts those conditions could return in the next six months, though NOAA says there's an 83% chance that ENSO neutral conditions – neither El Niño nor La Niña – develop between April and June.
NOAA's spring outlook also discusses temperature trends, precipitation, and overall weather patterns.
The precipitation outlook for the months of April, May and June in Colorado is leaning toward "wetter than average" conditions in northern parts of Colorado, and slightly drier than average in the southern part.
NOAA's seasonal temperature outlook for the same time period shows a "warmer than average" trend for most of Colorado, and slightly cooler in the north.
Forecasters say a drying trend is expected later in spring, which will most likely lead to a hot and dry summer here in Colorado.
"Anytime we have a hot and dry summer, you know, (it) brings concerns about drought and what that means for agriculture and water resources," said Dr. Russ Schumacher, Colorado's state climatologist. "If we look at the bright side of that, the snowpack is in pretty good shape this winter. So, from a water supply perspective, even if we have a hot dry summer, that buffer from having a good snowpack should be helpful."
NOAA's outlook says drought conditions have improved – less than 20% of the U.S. is in moderate to extreme drought – with the recent wet weather. It warns, though, that drought conditions could continue or worsen in parts of the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains.
Its outlook for March through June shows a likelihood of drought persisting in southern Colorado along the Sangre de Cristo mountain range.
Dr. Schumacher says NOAA forecasters are hinting towards a weak monsoon season this summer here in Colorado, which falls in line with the spring outlook of a dry and hot summer here in our state.
