Colorado began 2025 with more than three quarters of the state free of drought. Four months in and that number has plunged to less than half. With record warmth on the way, those numbers are likely to deteriorate.
Thursday's fire at Lake Minnequa demonstrated how dry conditions are in much of southern Colorado heading into this weekend.
The current dry pattern our state is in has a classic weak La Niña appearance. In the months of February through April, weak La Niñas are associated with a jet stream that’s farther north than during a strong La Niña. The long-term data shows that these jet stream changes result in below average precipitation in Colorado. They also typically result in above average temperatures.
As a result of the dry and warm conditions, the atmosphere is soaking up more water than usual. Over the past month, most of southern and eastern Colorado have had higher than normal evaporation. The Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI), which is an experimental NOAA analysis product that can serve as an early warning indicator for drought development - shows an ED1 to ED2 across southeast Colorado. This means that atmospheric evaporation demand is greater than 80-95% of historical values. Put another way - the atmosphere is only "thirstier" than it is right now on a monthly basis about 5-20% of the time. This places significant extra stress on plants as the atmosphere tries to steal their water content.
The latest drought map shows a bit less than half the state is drought-free, and a very slight improvement compared to last week. The long-term trend though is that drought is expanding. Severe to exceptional drought conditions have increased from four percent at the start of the year to over twelve percent now. And, in the past week, there’s been an expansion of moderate drought in the eastern Arkansas River Valley.
Typically, April through August are the wettest months of the year in southern Colorado. The eight to fourteen-day Climate Prediction Center outlook does suggest average to above average precipitation is likely later in the month, which is good news.
However, above average temperatures are also likely to continue, keeping evaporation demand high.
We can see from the high evaporation demand that drought conditions are likely to worsen over the next few months. This will impact fire danger, as drier plants are easier to ignite, so we’ll need to be more mindful than usual about outdoor burning, even on less windy days. Of course, fire weather conditions often pair with very nice days - so it may sound a bit like an overly-alarming take. But, until we see green up conditions occur across the region that is a common combination.
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