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Fire risk will be elevated late this weekend for parts of the southern plains

With a rapid warm up, and very dry air in place late this weekend into early next week along with moderate wind gusts, fire risks will be elevated from Sunday through at least Tuesday in parts of southern Colorado. 
Humidity values Sunday will be in the teens for much of southern Colorado
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We're looking forward to a mild and sunny weekend and you may be planning on taking advantage and getting outside. While fire danger may not be on your radar right now since we've been tracking snow and cold this week… it is on the way.

Three ingredients are needed for rapid fire spread. Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation. It also helps if the atmosphere is relatively unstable with a rapid temperature drop with height.

For fire threats to be elevated we need three main ingredients: dry fuels, moderate to strong wind gusts, and low humidity. It also helps if the atmosphere is unstable - which in this case means temperatures decrease quickly with height. This can occur when the ground is warmed quickly, or an upper level system approaches from the north - bringing cooler temperatures to the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Jet stream energy arrives in Colorado on Sunday

Wind won't be much of a concern Saturday, but on Sunday a small piece of jet stream energy will move over the state.

Additional jet stream energy tracks over the state through Wednesday

More jet stream energy is overhead on Monday and increasing on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The main region likely to scrape by with wind gusts qualifying for elevated fire concerns are the southern gap flow regions - the area east of the gap between the northern and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains in the southern plains.

Wind gusts on Sunday will favor the southern tier.

On Monday, winds will cover a slightly larger region but the southern gap flow region remains the main area of risk.

On Monday the breezes will cover a larger area. Neither day will see high-end wind gusts but gusts of 25 to 30 miles per hour are likely.

Winds will be breezy to gusty for most of southern Colorado on Tuesday - but humidity will be a bit more of a question.

Gusty winds will be more widespread on Tuesday but may not make it as far east into the Plains and humidity is a bit more of a question.

Humidity levels Sunday will be low in many areas - which means you should be careful with outdoor burning, even outside of the main belt of enhanced risk in the south.

At the same time… very dry air arrives late this weekend. Fire weather alerts are issued when the humidity falls below 15 percent.

Humidity on Monday will be higher in many areas, although the southern tier will still be close.
Humidity levels are again low on Tuesday in the early afternoon, but may rise during the later part of the afternoon.

Humidity will remain low Monday with a chance for increasing Tuesday. The timing of the increase is important, as wind gusts will be more widespread on Tuesday. If moisture is delayed, this would pose a risk for more widespread fire concerns. If it arrives in early afternoon, it'll cut the risk significantly.

Risks Sunday-Tuesday will generally be in the elevated category (a 2 on a 4 point scale). The risk expands on Tuesday - depending on the timing of incoming moisture.

So, the main area of concern Sunday and Monday will be east of the Southern Mountains in between mountain ranges. There's potential for more widespread risk mid-week but humidity values may be above what's needed for true elevated condition criteria and we'll have to wait and see.

While we're not yet in peak fire season across Southern Colorado… the incoming warm, dry, and windy weather is a reminder that peak season - Spring - is fast approaching. And a good reminder to be careful with your outdoor burning.

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