It’s been dry and warm this March across Southern Colorado with potential record heat later this week. According to a new Climate Prediction Center outlook, this pattern sticks around and may lead to drought development.
The CPC’s outlook between March 20th and the end of June suggests drought is likely to develop across most of Southern and Southwestern Colorado. It also forecasts drought will continue in the parts of Colorado already experiencing drought conditions. This includes the Four Corners region and the extreme Southeastern Plains.
The CPC’s outlook is based on two underlying forecasts. First, there is a good chance for temperatures in the next three months to be above average. This is driven partly by ongoing weak La Niña conditions and the lingering impact it will have even after La Niña conditions end later this spring.
Second, there is a strong chance for below-average precipitation in the next three months across all of Colorado. This is partly being driven by the La Niña forecast and also considers current soil moisture levels.
A look at precipitation in the last 30 days shows most of the areas forecast to see drought develop are under half their normal values. This lack of moisture creates a feedback loop, where drier soil leads to less evaporation, which leads to less precipitation.
So far in Pueblo, you’ve picked up eight one-hundredths of an inch of liquid this month, the 11th driest month to date. If you don’t get any further moisture before April, it would become your 7th driest.
These forecasts consider the impact of La Niña and other climate patterns on our weather conveyor belt—the jet stream. The combination of climate patterns in place favors the jet stream being to our north on average. This means we have fewer opportunities for storms to deliver beneficial rainfall. The jet stream also tends to divide warm and cold air. When it’s to our north, warm air from the subtropics is more able and likely to build into Colorado.
The warm weather we’re tracking is a double-edged sword. It’s great for hiking and outdoor activities, but it’s concerning for future fire potential. So enjoy the mild conditions but remember to conserve water and be mindful of outdoor burning.
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