Tonight's Forecast:
Following a windy day with high fire danger, it will be a windy night in southern Colorado, particularly west of I-25. A very strong jet stream is overhead with a fairly tight pressure gradient in the middle levels of the atmosphere as well. Combined with stable air in place these winds have been efficiently mixing down today and rolling down the mountain slopes. As a mid-level piece of energy moves overhead tonight, it will bring even stronger mid-level winds. If you live in a wind prone area east of the mountains, you could see gusts of 45-50 mph overnight. Wind gusts may be particularly strong in Walsenburg and Trinidad and other areas east of the Sangre De Cristo mountains.
If you're east of I-25...wind gusts will not be that strong overnight as you lack a mechanism to mix down the winds from higher up in the atmosphere.
We're tracking very high fire danger on Monday for all of southern Colorado.
Colorado Springs forecast: Low: 40; High: 73;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM MON - 12:00 AM TUE
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM TUE - 8:00 PM TUE
Partly cloudy and breezy. Winds west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph east of I-25, and to 40 mph west of I-25. Lows will be mild.
Pueblo forecast: Low: 37; High: 80;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM MON - 12:00 AM TUE
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM TUE - 8:00 PM TUE
Partly cloudy and gusty tonight. West winds at 15-25 mph gusting 30-35 mph generally in the west part of town into Pueblo West.
I'm forecasting your first 80 degree day of the year tomorrow. Some model guidance doesn't show you quite this warm, while some shows you warmer than 80. My expectation is that with the strong downslope winds, the warmer idea is likely correct. Your normal 1st 80-degree day is April 8th. The main impact this has - other than making Monday a warm and windy day, is leading to very high fire danger.
Canon City forecast: Low: 46; High: 74;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM MON - 12:00 AM TUE
Mostly clear skies and gusty. West winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 40 mph.
Woodland Park forecast: Low: 31; High: 61;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM MON - 12:00 AM TUE
It's going to be a windy night in the city above the clouds! Mostly clear skies...winds from the west at 15-30 mph, gusting to 50 mph. Strong dry winds Monday - fire danger will be high.
Tri-Lakes forecast: Low: 38-43; High: 64-69;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM MON - 12:00 AM TUE
Partly cloudy and breezy. West winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
Plains forecast: Low: 30s; High: 70s/80s;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM MON - 12:00 AM TUE
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM TUE - 8:00 PM TUE
HIGH WIND WATCH from 10:00 AM TUE - 10:00 PM TUE for the southern tier
Mostly clear, with west winds at 10-25 mph.
Walsenburg and Trinidad forecast: Low: 46/44; High: 68/72;
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 9:00 AM MON - 8:00 PM MON
FIRE WEATHER WARNING from 11:00 AM TUE - 8:00 PM TUE
HIGH WIND WATCH from 10:00 AM TUE - 10:00 PM TUE
Very windy tonight. Partly cloudy with west winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 55 mph. Winds will be even stronger on Monday. Expect west winds at 25-45 mph gusting to 65 mph.
Mountains forecast: Low: 30s/40s; High: 50s/60s;
Extended outlook forecast:
Fire Danger will be very high on Monday across all of southern Colorado. We're in for a potent combination of critically dry fuels, strong downslope wind, and humidity values in the single digits. Fire Weather Warnings will last the entire day and continue after sunset. Temperatures will be well above average due to the downslope winds as well, which will further elevate fire spread concerns as fuels dry out. If you're celebrating Saint Patrick's Day - or simply plan to get outside - avoid any activities that could start a fire. We'll be situated between broad regions of high and low pressure with a potent jet stream overhead.
It will remain breezy Monday night, and it will be windy again on Tuesday. A cold front will move through during the afternoon. During the evening, moisture increases and showers arrive - starting as rain below 7,000 feet and transitioning to snow. The Palmer Divide and Woodland Park are as usual favored in this set up and will likely see the best accumulations of 2-5". A couple inches are possible in the northern sections of Colorado Springs. I'm not seeing a great signal for upslope flow with the front at the moment, which would limit shower potential further south.
Either way - the cold front and moisture will reduce fire danger on Wednesday. Another system is on the horizon Thursday night into Friday. It lacks a good moisture source - but it has some decent mid-level physics to work with. Therefore, some light rain and snow looks possible on Friday. All told - it doesn't look like a major storm.
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Curious about the First Alert 5 Weather Storm Impact Scale? Check out our cheatsheet explainer.
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