When the Russian army mounted a full-scale invasion two years ago, Ukrainian men zealously rushed to recruitment centers across the country to enlist, ready to die in defense of their nation.
Today, with Russia in control of roughly one-quarter of Ukraine and the two armies virtually deadlocked along a 620-mile front line, that spirit to enlist has faded: Many Ukrainian men are evading the draft by hiding at home or trying to bribe their way out of the battle.
Along the frigid and muddy front line, commanders say their army is too small and made up of too many exhausted and wounded soldiers. As the war enters its third year, the most urgent and politically sensitive challenge pressing on Ukraine is whether it can muster enough new soldiers to repel an enemy with far more fighters at its disposal.
Russia’s population is more than three times as large as Ukraine’s, and President Vladimir Putin has shown a willingness to force men to the front if not enough volunteer.
The lack of soldiers isn’t Ukraine’s only predicament — it is also desperate for Western military aid, which has been harder to come by as the war drags on. But mobilizing enough soldiers is a problem only Ukraine can solve.
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The parliament is considering legislation that would increase the potential pool of recruits by about 400,000, in part by lowering the enlistment age from 27 to 25. But the proposal is highly unpopular, forcing elected officials to grapple with questions that cut to the heart of nationhood: Can they convince enough citizens to sacrifice their lives? And, if not, are they willing to accept the alternative?
A Ukrainian soldier fighting near the city of Avdiivka — where soldiers retreated last week to save lives — said his unit was recently outnumbered by about 5 to 1 when dozens of Russian soldiers stormed their position, killing everyone but himself and two others.
“We were almost completely defeated,” said Dima, who refused to provide his last name for security reasons.
Roughly 500 miles away, a 42-year-old man afraid of being sent to the front hides at home outside of Kyiv, distressed. “I feel a sort of a guilt for being a man ... I cannot feel myself free,” said Andrii, who insisted on using his first name only to speak about dodging the draft.
Tens of thousands of other eligible Ukrainian men are estimated to be evading the draft, at home or abroad.
Because there aren’t enough new recruits, soldiers on the front line aren’t getting enough rest in between rotations. Two years of grueling battles have left men fatigued and more susceptible to injury. When there are new recruits, they are too few, too poorly trained and often too old, according to interviews with two dozen Ukrainian soldiers, including six commanders.
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Commanders say they don’t have enough soldiers to launch offensives, and barely enough to hold positions amid intensifying Russian assaults.
Brigades of 3,000-5,000 soldiers are typically fighting with only 75% of their full strength, according to Vadym Ivchenko, a lawmaker who is part of the parliament’s national security, defense and intelligence committee.
At the start of the war, soldiers were rotated every two weeks for one week of rest, he said. But now his soldiers fight for a month, then get four days of rest.
The legislation being discussed in parliament would enable the military to draft more men so that those already enlisted can get more rest or even be relieved of duty.
An estimated 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers are currently fighting along the front line, while others serve elsewhere, lawmakers said. Putin has said twice as many Russian troops are in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military seeks to mobilize up to 500,000 more men, but realizing how unpopular such a move would be, lawmakers are treading carefully. Over 1,000 amendments have been attached to draft legislation that even President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has yet to publicly endorse.
Under the draft legislation, any individual who fails to respond to call up notices could potentially have their bank accounts frozen and their ability to travel outside the country restricted.
Lawmakers critical of the legislation, including Ivchenko, say the military hasn’t adequately explained how a surge in conscription will meaningfully change the outcome of the war. The two countries have been at a near standstill for months following a failed counteroffensive by the Ukrainians over the summer. But the Russians have recently taken the initiative.
“Will this law be enough for the armed forces to change the situation on the battlefield?” asked Ivchenko.
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